The Windup: Four playoff teams from one division? (2024)

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Could the NL West make history? The Giants have some work to do, but … maybe! Plus: Ken on the third-base market this offseason, the AL West is gettingveryinteresting and the Marlins should just about have everything out of their system by this point. I’mLevi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Could NL West have 4 playoff teams?

Yesterday,we told youabout how the Padres and Diamondbacks had not only made the NL West interesting, but were putting the top two NL wild-card positions out of reach for anyone else.

I wanted to lead today with an acknowledgement: The Giants havebeen pretty good lately, too. They’re still just2 1/2 games outof the third wild-card position; could they eke into that final spot?! If so —and if Arizona and San Diego hang on —it would be the first time in history that four teams from the same division made it into the postseason.(OK, OK – before the expanded playoff format that began in 2022, such a thing was mathematically impossible. Still, who expected it to potentially happen so quickly?)

They didn’t help themselves last night, dropping a 1-0 pitcher’s duel in 10 innings.Blake Snell and Chris Sale were brilliant, combining for an Oracle Park-record 23 strikeouts. It was a big loss, considering the opponent —the Braves are one of three teams that sit between the Giants and a comeback playoff berth:

• Braves(62-56): Not much has changed since last week. Sale still rules, but a lot of Atlanta’s stars are still hurt. If I had to pick a favorite, though, Ithink I’m leaning Braves.
• Mets(61-57): A game back, New York has been one of this year’s streakiest teams. Theirdefense has massively improvedsince July 1, but they’re 4-6 in their last 10 games. They start aseries against the A’s tonight.
• Cardinals(60-59): Currently in a virtual tie with the Giants (61-60), St. Louis is 4-7 in August, losing to the Reds 6-1 last night. They justrecalled a red-hot Jordan Walker, but their minus-53 run differential does not inspire hope that they’ll emerge above the rest.

There’s still a lot of baseball to play, but if you don’t have any other rooting interest in the NL, you could do worse than pulling for the improbable.

Ken’s Notebook: An interesting 3B market, plus the White Sox’s outsized wild-card impact

Frommy latest notes column:

Bregman vs. Chapman

The Astros’ Alex Bregman is getting on one of his August rolls, going 12-for-27 with six extra-base hits in his last six games. He actually has performed at ahigh level since mid-May, and it’s a good thing. His Scott Boras stablemate, the Giants’ Matt Chapman, also is a potential free agent at third base, and enjoying a better platform season overall.

Bregman, 30, is a year younger than Chapman, and possesses far more postseason experience. But Chapman, who can return to the open market by declining his remaining two years and $35 million in player options, is generally considered a better defender. He also has rebounded offensively, producing through Sunday an adjusted OPS that was 25 percent above league average, his best since 2019. Bregman was at 12 percent above, a career low.

The market for third basem*n should be interesting. Besides the Astros and Giants, the teams with obvious needs include the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Yankees, presuming they move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second as a replacement for Gleyber Torres. The Mets also could be a possibility, if they don’t view Mark Vientos as a long-term answer.

White Sox wreaking havoc in wild-card race

Even with teams now playing 13 games against division opponents, down from 19 between 2013 and ‘22, a team as bad as the White Sox is bound to produce a significant effect on the postseason race.

Consider: Both the Royals and Twins are 12-1 against the White Sox. In other games, the Royals are .500, and the Twins are three games above. Thus, the teams immediately behind them in the AL wild-card race — the Red Sox and AL West runner-up — are at a disadvantage.

The Mariners are 6-1 against the White Sox. The Red Sox are 2-2 and the Astros 1-2, each with one series remaining. The AL Central-leading Guardians, oddly enough, are only 5-5 against a team that has endured losing streaks of 14 and 21 games.

The White Sox currently are on pace to finish 39-123. To avoid breaking the 1962 Mets’ record of 120 losses, they will need to go 15-28 the rest of the way. That’s a winning percentage of .349, well above their current .242 mark.

Oh, but at least the White Sox will get the No. 1 overall pick for their troubles, right? Nope. They will select no higher than 10thbecause of an anti-tanking measure in the collective bargaining agreement preventing teams that are not revenue-sharing recipients from receiving lottery picks in back-to-back years.

Standings Watch: The ‘other’ West is also interesting

With a 6-1 win over the Rays last night, the Astros (63-55) took a half-game lead in the division over the Mariners (63-66). But somehow, even the most predictable outcome is seasoned with intrigue, since Houston started the season 7-19. On June 18, they were10 games out of first place. By July 19, the inevitable had happened: They had a share of the division lead.

If Houston’s season were a ship, they’ve spent months nailing boards, buckets and rats to the wall to keep up with every new injury leak. Jose Abreu has been thrown overboard. Zach Dezenzo is scrambling back and forth between starboard and port, and now hemight be a left fielder.But they’re 7-3 in August, and with Justin Verlander hoping to return soon, Houston would now appear to be the favorites.

But I truly believe thatSeattle(and it’s here I realized I used the ship metaphor on the wrong team; c’mon, they’re theMariners)might be a more dangerous team in the playoffs, should they sneak past Houston.

• The worst ERA in their rotation? Bryce Miller, at 3.46. Since the All-Star break, they’re tied (with Oakland!) for the fewest runs allowed by any AL team, at 77.
• Offense has been their Achilles heel all year, but the additions of Randy Arozarena (.306 average .921 OPS since joining the Mariners) andnewly-extended Victor Robles(.303, .821) have helped. Julio Rodríguez just returned from the IL.

Houston’s series with Tampa continues tonight, but they get the White Sox at home after that. The Mariners start a nine-game road trip tonight that goes Tigers ➡️ Pirates ➡️ Dodgers.

All Business: Marlins make front-office moves

We’re getting to that time of the year when we start to see some front office reshuffling. The standard reason given is traditionally something like,“We wanted to give them a head start on finding work elsewhere for next year.”

Maybe it’s no surprise that the Marlins are the first team to get the ball rolling —they were, after all, the team thattraded Luis Arraezto the Padres all the way back in early May. Whatissurprising? The number of people let go.

• As first reportedin the Miami Herald, the Marlins parted with assistant GM Oz Ocampo, who rose to prominence with the Astros, and Dan Greenlee, also an assistant GM.
• Later, ESPN reportedthat the firings included “four field coordinators and their international scouting director,” along with “more than 10 scouts.”

Add this to the player exodus at the deadline — Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz, Trevor Rogers and others — and the fact that manager Skip Schumaker’s contract expires at the end of this season, andGM Peter Bendix has just about completed the tear-down portion of the rebuild.

Next up: the actual rebuilding, though there are small flickers of hope. Since the All-Star game, Jake Burger leads baseball with 12 home runs, and Xavier Edwards is tied for the league lead with 13 stolen bases.

Handshakes and High Fives

Mookie Betts was officially reinstated from the IL yesterday. The surprising corresponding move? Amed Rosario — whom the Dodgers acquired at the trade deadline, and who is hitting .305 this year — was DFA’d. It was the first of what could bea series of tough decisionsin L.A.

Brendan Kuty digs in tothe swing changethat catapulted Aaron Judge back into the upper stratosphere of big-league hitters.

This week’s Power Rankings try to identify one player for each team who could represent their countryin the 2028 Olympics— if big-leaguers are, in fact, allowed to play.

Before this season, Mick Abel was near the top of a lot of pitching prospect lists. Eighteen starts and a 6.18 ERA later, he has dropped significantly on many of them. Matt Gelb caught up with him tofind out what happened—and the path forward.

Yu Darvishthrew live BP, leading to speculation that he might return to the Padres this year, after all.

Jarren Duran has beensuspended two gamesfor yelling a hom*ophobic slur at a fan on Sunday night.

Speaking of the weirdly impactful White Sox … uhh,they beat the Yankees yesterday. Huh.

Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter:Dan Hayes’ story on Rod Carewbecoming a U.S. citizen at age 78.

Most-read MLB story on the website yesterday: Jim Bowden’sranking of the top 50 potential free agentsin this year’s class.

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(Top photo: Sergio Estrada / USA Today)